AAPOR's Statement on 2012 Presidential Election Polling
DEERFIELD, Ill. — November 12, 2012 — During the past two
months, journalists, partisans on many sides, and the public at large
have focused a great deal of attention on the accuracy of the
presidential pre-election polls. At times considerable criticism
was directed toward pollsters and their polling methods.
However, as was seen last Wednesday morning, the vast majority of the
major pollsters were highly accurate in their final estimates for the
presidential election, both at the national and state levels. The
American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) would like to
take this occasion to compliment pollsters who used established,
objective scientific methods to conduct their polls, rather than
subjective judgments about the electorate to make their forecasts.
“AAPOR is very pleased that the survey research profession has
worked to respond to the increasing challenges facing public opinion
polling by drawing on the best available scientific evidence, whether it
is from scholars, government researchers, or political polling
practitioners themselves,” said Paul J. Lavrakas, Ph.D.,
AAPOR’s current president.
Despite myriad challenges including the growing cell phone
population, increasingly high levels of non-response, and even the
effects of unanticipated events such as Hurricane Sandy, the final
estimates of the 2012 election outcomes demonstrated that when pollsters
remain committed to objective scientific methods, their pre-election
polls are very likely to be an accurate forecast of the voting
public’s behavior.
“As importantly, to the extent that polls also are accurate in
characterizing the attitudes, beliefs, and motivations of the
electorate, we believe that pollsters, and the news media that use their
poll findings, provide a great service to democracy by placing the
opinions and preferences of the public in the forefront of the electoral
process,” observed Lavrakas.