Should We Trust Leaked Polls?

Mark Blumenthal, editor of  pollster.com, prepared a guide in 2005 for consumers of polling data on the validity of leaked polls. His three questions to ask:

1) Has the pollster gone "on the record" about the results?   

2) Does the pollster disclose their basic methodology?

3) Does the pollster go beyond bare minimum disclosure standards?  

His argument:  “If reporters or readers are in doubt about whether a poll is genuine, they can tell a lot from the pollster's willingness and ability to disclose this level of detail.”   Continue reading...