Thursday, May 16, 7:00 p.m. – 9:30 p.m.
Enjoy a great meal and the mental stimulation that only the AAPOR conference can deliver. The floor will be open for questions following the plenary presentation.
Polling, New Analytics, and the 2012 Election
This year’s plenary session will explore a variety of perspectives on measuring, understanding, and influencing public opinion and voter intentions leading up to the 2012 presidential election. The campaign season was marked by plentiful if sometimes contradictory analysis of prevailing trends, the impact of key events in the campaign, and the role of undecided voters.
But what did the polls really tell us about public opinion leading up to the election? What issues were most critical to voters, what were the truly consequential events that formulated voter intentions, and what data were best suited to explain the thoughts of the electorate? And, how well did the polls point toward Election Day outcomes, both individually and in aggregate? The plenary will also explore major developments in the role of new data sources and analytics in understanding voter intention and targeting messages to influence votes. How do big data factor into the modern campaign, how are the data used? More generally, what do these new data sources portend for polling as it exists today?
A distinguished panel with representatives from the media, academia, and a presidential campaign will offer thoughts through presentations and moderated discussion. Panelists include:
- Ron Brownstein, Editorial Director of National Journal
- Lynn Vavreck, Professor of Political Science and Communication Studies at UCLA
- Dan Wagner, Chief Analytics Officer of the 2012 Obama presidential campaign
- Moderator - Mark Blumenthal, Senior Polling Editor of the Huffington Post