Election Polling Resources

Make sense of the latest polls and put current results into perspective with these resources, including free access to pertinent articles from Public Opinion Quarterly (POQ), AAPOR's peer-reviewed journal. 

The Primaries

• AAPOR Special Committee on 2008 Presidential Primary Polling 
• AAPOR Ad Hoc Committee to Evaluate New Hampshire, Other Primary Polls 
• Release of Committee Mission Statement 
• Pollster.com New Hampshire Primary Bibliography 
• Nancy Mathiowetz writes on Huffington Post about what might have gone wrong in New Hampshire 

Likely Voters

• How Pollsters Select Likely Voters 
• POQ Article on Likely Voter Modelling (PDF)

Sampling and Sub-Groups

• Measuring Sub-Group Preferences 
• Determining the Margin of Sampling Error 

Nonresponse Effects and Measurement

• Special POQ Issue on Nonresponse Bias
• Measuring Response Rates 
• The Washington Post Response Rates Explained

Measuring Poll Accuracy

• Poll Performance in the 2004 Presidential Campaign (POQ link)
• Assessing Poll Performance in the 2000 Presidential Campaign (PDF)

Using Exit Polls

• Explaining Exit Polls 
• Pollster.com FAQ

Identifying Push Polls

• AAPOR Statement on So-Called "Push" Polls
• Press Release Provides Clarification on "Push Poll" Issue 
• Nancy Mathiowetz on Push Polls vs. Message Testing

Additional Resources

• Special issue of Public Opinion Quarterly (POQ): Polling Politics, Media, and Election Campaigns (2005)

What the Experts are Saying

• Pollster.com
• Carl Bialik: The Numbers Guy, Wall Street Journal 
• Poll Positions: Kathy Frankovic, CBS News 
• The Numbers: Gary Langer, ABC News 
• Washington Post: Behind the Numbers
• Politics by the Numbers, Edison Media Research